Next flu pandemic could wreak global havoc, scient

[MRBROWNSTONE]

The warning sirens are screaming: A deadly, contagious strain of flu will emerge, possibly soon, flu experts say, and the world is not ready to deal with it.

Pandemic influenza occurs periodically throughout history, causing widespread illness and death, overwhelming medical systems and wreaking chaos in societies. These viruses are highly contagious, and because they are new, no one is immune.

Influenza is serious enough, killing an average of 36,000 people in the USA every year, but because it is caused by strains of the virus that are known to be circulating in the world, vaccines can be prepared to prevent it. This year, a strain that doesn't match up exactly with those in the vaccine has emerged and raised serious concerns, but experts believe the vaccine will still offer some protection.

Using current technologies, it takes as long as six months to create flu vaccines.

"The world will be in deep trouble if the impending influenza pandemic strikes this week, this month, or even this year," write international flu experts Richard Webby and Robert Webster of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis.

In an article in Friday's Science, they argue that new methods to produce flu vaccines rapidly are known, but have not yet been tested. "What's necessary is to do trial runs and demonstrate these (new vaccines) are safe," Webster said during a press briefing.

Also needed is a stockpile of anti-viral drugs that can be used to treat or prevent the spread of flu. Current supplies would last only days in a pandemic, Webster said, "but no country has yet invested in stockpiling."

It was international flu surveillance that helped alert the world to SARS (news - web sites) this past spring.

In addition to new vaccine technologies and anti-flu drugs, he says, "you need the best surveillance possible, particularly in places where you think a virus might emerge."

It has been more than 30 years since the last pandemic, and "we're overdue," Webster says.

"Flu keeps knocking on the door. We've seen enough incidences over the past three or four years to make us very alarmed."

Source: story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&ncid=676&e=9&u=/usatoday/20031201/ts_usatoday/12043541

[Gilby Admirer]

We've already had a flu going around work

[MRBROWNSTONE]

Gilby said:

We've already had a flu going around work

That sucks. Hope you don't get it from someone.


Two Flu Shot Makers Run Out of Vaccine.

The two makers of flu shots in the United States said Friday they have run out of vaccine and will not be able to meet a surge in demand resulting from fears of a particularly bad flu season.

Nevertheless, the companies said people who have put off getting their shots may still be able to find them, since distributors and doctors' offices may still have some left.

The companies, Chiron and Aventis Pasteur, together made about 80 million doses of the injected vaccine, which ordinarily would be enough to meet U.S. demand.

"Because of the recent outbreak, we've seen an unprecedented surge of vaccine orders late in the season," said Len Lavenda, an Aventis spokesman. "As a result, we have now shipped all our available supplies."

"It's all been shipped out," said Chiron's John Gallagher. "We began shipping in August. It's all gone at this point."

The companies said they cannot make more vaccine this year, because the process takes four months. By that time, the flu season would be over.

Another alternative is FluMist, the more expensive inhaled version of the vaccine. Its maker, MedImmune Vaccines, made between 4 million and 5 million doses this year. Spokeswoman Jamie Lacey said that as of Nov. 18, the company had sold 400,000 doses, and "there is still a wide supply available."

The nasal spray is recommended only for healthy people ages 5-49, and disease doctors are urging it as an option to save the traditional vaccine for more at-risk people.

"If you're healthy, you have two options: Please take the option that the other folks can't have," said Dr. William Schaffner of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (news - web sites) said that in a typical year, between 70 million and 75 million Americans get the shots, and the record is 80 million.

Dr. Julie Gerberding, the CDC head, said that this year more people than usual got flu shots in October and November, and there is unusually high interest in December.

The CDC said it is not unusual for supplies to run short this time of year, as health care providers stop giving vaccinations. The agency said it is working to locate supplies that can be sent where they are needed.

"What we are telling people is there is still vaccine in the pipeline, although we are not sure how much," Lavenda said. "People who want to get a flu shot this year should not wait any longer. They will have to be persistent."

In Colorado's El Paso County, health director Rosemary Bakes-Martin said her agency hoped to order 2,000 doses this week but could come up with just 500 from suppliers.

"The story they're telling us is that they weren't expecting this shortage, that they were hit with increased orders in the last week," she said.

The sudden late demand for flu shots was triggered by reports of an especially bad flu season, especially for children.

The outbreak was particularly intense in Colorado, where within the past month, more than 6,300 people have been infected and at least six have died. All the dead were under 16 years old.

Colorado is one of 13 states with a widespread flu outbreak, the highest designation given by the CDC. The others are Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

In Nebraska, doctors' offices are using up their supply, and the Lancaster County Health Department became the first department in the state to run out of the shots Friday.

The department has given more than 7,500 doses to the public, and so far hasn't been able to obtain more, its director Bruce Dart said.

"People are realizing that this winter has the potential to be very bad and they're trying to find access to the flu shot wherever they can get it," said Dr. Richard Raymond, Nebraska's chief medical officer.

The shots were fast disappearing where they were available, officials in other states said.

"We will run out," said Ann Wright, spokeswoman for the state health department in Arkansas, but officials don't know when.

Even before this year's deaths, there were signs this could be a bad flu season. Some parts of the country were hit hard a month earlier than usual, and doctors are seeing the A-Fujian-H3N2 strain, part of a class of flu viruses that caused severe outbreaks in the United States in the 1990s.

Even though health officials urge people to get their shots, it is still not clear how effective they will be against this strain, which is somewhat different from the three that this year's vaccine is designed to combat.

Source: story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031206/ap_on_he_me/flu_vaccine&cid=541&ncid=716